New energy era, global layout and competition of strategic mineral resources

　　Given the high rarity and monopoly of strategic mineral resources, major economies have begun to adjust their international resource strategies. The future demand for rare mineral resources used in strategic emerging industries will increase substantially, and competition for rare mineral resources among major economies, especially industrial powers, will become increasingly fierce. China needs to further extend the "Strategic Action for Breakthrough in Prospecting", improve its domestic resource security capabilities, and improve resource utilization efficiency through resource recycling, sustainable products, and innovation. At the same time, it should deepen inter-country cooperation and promote the construction of a new global mineral resource governance pattern.
　　Historical resource conflicts have manifested as disputes over fuel minerals such as oil and natural gas. Since the beginning of the new century, the rise of emerging industries, the widespread application of new-generation information technology, and the acceleration of the global green transition have highlighted the importance of some non-fuel minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese, rare earths, gallium, neodymium, indium, germanium, scandium, platinum, and tantalum. The World Bank predicts that global demand for these minerals could grow by 500% by 2050. The International Energy Agency's report "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions" released this year mentions the importance of minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths for the global energy industry to achieve a safe and rapid transition. Lithium, cobalt, and nickel enable batteries to have higher charging performance and higher energy density. Certain rare earth elements (such as neodymium) produce powerful magnets, which are essential for wind turbines and electric vehicles. The report also points out that in the coming decades, the supply of critical minerals required for key clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles needs to increase significantly to achieve global climate goals. A typical electric vehicle requires six times the mineral input of a traditional car, while an onshore wind power plant requires nine times the mineral resources of a similar-sized gas-fired power plant. It can be expected that in the future clean energy economy, critical minerals will have the same important geopolitical significance as oil does today.
　　Due to the non-renewable nature and uneven geographical distribution of most mineral resources, major global economies have begun to re-examine and assess their critical mineral supply status and formulate corresponding global resource strategies. It is foreseeable that global competition surrounding the extraction, processing, refining, and application of critical minerals will intensify, and geopolitical conflicts driven by strategic mineral resources will also escalate.
　　I. What are Strategic Mineral Resources
　　Currently, there is no unified definition of strategic mineral resources in the international community. Because these minerals are often mineral products that a country heavily relies on imports for, the list of critical minerals varies from country to country. Countries such as Europe, the United States, Japan, and China, focusing on economic security, industrial upgrading, and supply risks, have respectively proposed concepts such as "critical mineral materials," "critical minerals," "important rare metals," and "strategic minerals."
　　In 2018, the United States announced a draft list of 35 "Critical Minerals List", mainly including: bauxite, antimony, arsenic, barite, beryllium, bismuth, cesium, chromium, cobalt, fluorite, gallium, germanium, graphite (natural), hafnium, helium, indium, lithium, magnesium, manganese, niobium, platinum group metals, potassium, rare earth element group, rhenium, rubidium, scandium, strontium, tantalum, tellurium, tin, titanium, tungsten, uranium, vanadium, and zirconium. The EU's list of "critical mineral materials" is updated every three years, and has increased from 14 in 2011 to 30 in 2020. In addition to being the same as more than 20 minerals in the above-mentioned US list, it also includes borates, coking coal, natural rubber, phosphate rock, phosphorus, metallic silicon, etc. on the list. Japan emphasizes the concept of "rare metals" and lists 34 rare minerals such as lithium, beryllium, boron, titanium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, and rare earths as priority minerals. China's "Strategic Action Plan for Breakthrough in Prospecting (2011-2020)" lists 24 minerals into the strategic mineral catalog: metal minerals include iron, chromium, copper, aluminum, gold, nickel, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, zirconium; non-metal minerals include phosphorus, potash, crystalline graphite, fluorite.
　　Despite the differences in names and lists, the identification of strategic mineral resources by various countries is based on the following three criteria: First, they are of economic and strategic importance; second, they are of great significance to the industrial ecosystem; and third, they have a high degree of import dependence, low substitutability, and high supply risks.
　　II. Geographical and Economic Characteristics of Strategic Mineral Resources
　　Unlike oil and gas resources, which are relatively abundant in supply, global strategic mineral resources reserves are limited, and the market size, price, and origin of each mineral are different, and production and processing are highly concentrated in a few countries. For example, pure electric vehicles need to be equipped with large lithium-ion batteries, and the origin of the rare metal cobalt used to produce lithium-ion batteries is mainly concentrated in the Congo (Kinshasa), which accounts for 59% of global production; tungsten, which is essential for the production of special steel, and fluorite, which is used for lithium-ion battery production and semiconductor processing, are produced by China with a large share; the United States monopolizes more than 70% of global beryllium and helium production, and beryllium is mainly used in electronic communications, automobiles, aviation, and defense.
　　From a regional perspective, in Asia, China has excellent mineral resources, and its output of rare earths, tungsten, antimony, germanium, metallic silicon, fluorite, beryllium, etc. occupies a dominant position in the world, but resources such as borate, hafnium, helium, tantalum, and platinum group metals are rare. India is rich in iron ore and ferroalloys - especially manganese and chromite, and has the potential to exploit copper, bauxite (the main ore of aluminum), zinc, lead, etc. In Europe, Germany, France, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine are all major iron ore producers. Russia is an exporter of rare earth minerals. However, the vast majority of minerals in the EU are heavily dependent on imports: China provides 98% of the EU's rare earth element (REE) supply; Turkey provides 98% of the EU's borate supply; and South Africa provides 71% of the EU's platinum supply.
　　In the Americas, Canada is a major supplier of natural gas and phosphate, and its cesium production accounts for 85% of the world's total. Chile is the world's leading producer of lithium and borate. The United States has advantages in the production and export of metal abrasives, boron, clay, diatomaceous earth, gold, helium, zirconium and other minerals, but is completely dependent on imports of minerals such as arsenic, asbestos, cesium, fluorite, gallium, natural graphite, and rare earths.
　　In Africa, African countries such as Mozambique, Rwanda, Congo (Kinshasa), Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Burundi concentrate on producing more than 70% of the world's tantalum ore. South Africa is also one of the world's leading producers of iron ore and platinum.
　　Australia is also a major producer of minerals in the world, with important mineral resources being bauxite, gold and iron ore.
　　In recent years, the increasing environmental awareness of people around the world has placed significant constraints on the supply of mineral products. Many resource-rich developing countries have realized that shifting from exporting raw materials to using domestic resources to produce semi-finished or finished products is of great strategic importance to the country's long-term development, and their policy adjustments will inevitably intensify the already fierce global competition for key resources.
　　3. Global Resource Strategies of Major Economies
　　Given the high rarity and monopoly of strategic mineral resources, major economies have begun to adjust their international resource strategies.
　　Since 2008, the European Union has launched the "Critical Raw Materials Initiative", which mainly includes three goals: to ensure access to resources from third countries; to increase the supply of raw materials within the EU; and to improve resource utilization efficiency, substitutability and recyclability. In 2020, the European Commission further updated the initiative, specifically proposing to achieve a series of goals such as developing "resilient value chains" for industrial ecosystems, strengthening resource recycling, promoting product innovation and sustainability, reducing dependence on third-country supplies, strengthening internal industrial chain links, and achieving supply diversification.
　　The U.S. critical mineral strategy was launched in 2010, and its main idea is similar to that of the European Union: promoting domestic production, increasing recycling and reuse, and developing alternative materials. Global supply chain diversification is considered by the United States as the key to reducing its supply risks. In 2019, the United States and nine countries, including Canada, Australia, Brazil, Congo (Kinshasa), Peru, and the Philippines, jointly adopted the "Energy Resource Governance Initiative", intending to obtain key minerals through trade with allies and partners, and promote the development of rare earths, lithium, cobalt and other resources to reduce dependence on foreign imports of high-tech materials.
　　The goal of Japan's international resource strategy is to ensure a stable supply of mineral resources in the future, and the policies include four major areas: ensuring the safety of overseas resources, improving recycling rates, developing alternatives, and strengthening key raw material reserves. In April of this year, Japan announced a partnership with the United States on sensitive supply chains, including semiconductors, seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals and diversify its supply routes.
　　Overall, the demand for rare mineral resources for strategic emerging industries will increase significantly in the future, and the competition for rare mineral resources among major economies, especially industrial powers, will become increasingly fierce. Since the implementation of the "Strategic Action Plan for Breakthroughs in Prospecting (2011-2020)", China has achieved remarkable results in the development and production of strategic mineral resources, but the growth of new resource reserves is still far lower than the growth of reserve consumption, and the production and supply of mineral products cannot keep up with the growth rate of actual consumption. In addition, China's imports of iron ore, copper, aluminum, nickel, lithium, cobalt, potash and other minerals mainly depend on Australia, Congo (Kinshasa), the Philippines, Chile, Peru, Indonesia and other countries, so it is necessary to pay attention to long-term supply risks. China needs to further extend the "Strategic Action for Breakthroughs in Prospecting", improve its domestic resource security capabilities, and improve resource utilization efficiency through resource recycling, sustainable products and innovation, while deepening inter-state cooperation to promote the construction of a new global mineral resource governance pattern.